High-Confidence Forecasting For NPD & R&D Projects (1/2-Day)
Can you make high-confidence returns projections, using defensible assumptions and readily available data inputs?
In this Expert Practices Course you will learn the know-how to:
- Utilize built-in functions in Excel and common Excel Add-Ins to implement monte carlo risk simulation capabilities.
- Model key project-level pro-forma financial assumptions such as selling price, unit volume, COGS, market size, and market share.
- Forecast revenue and profits by synthesizing internal champion estimates, market analyst data, and probability distributions.
Master a robust methodology for forecasting project-level returns:
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Review Conventional Business Case Development Practices
Single-Point Deterministic Estimates, Corner-Point Analysis, Probability of Success Scaling -
Harnessing Monte Carlo Analysis for Risk Simulation
Probability Distribution Fundamentals, Characteristic Shapes, Descriptive Parameters, Simulation Trials -
Modeling & Specifying Key Uncertain Assumptions
Selling Price, Unit Volume Demand, COSG per Unit, Total Available Market, Share of Market
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Implementing Monte Carlo Analysis
MS Excel Built-In Functions for Analytic Distributions, Risk Simulation Add-Ins for MS Excel -
Building Real-World Pro-Forma Returns Models
New Product Revenue and Gross Profit Potential, Application, Product Category, and Market Segment Revenue Forecasts -
Extending Business Case Forecast Models
Project-Level Financials Beyond Gross Profit, Project Valuation Considerations, Time-Series Correlation
"Our business model has some distinctly unique and complex aspects. PROXI was able to adapt their processes to meet our custom requirements. The expertise of the PROXI team demonstrated the power of integrated, readily available information, and they minimized potential obstacles towards managing change for us.”
Dan Lundberg, Group Efficiency Architect
Hewlett-Packard Company, Inc.
"PROXI’s innovative portfolio analysis capabilities are grounded in sound business processes and financially robust models. The training we received was comprehensive with respect to excellent portfolio management practices.”
Cindy Margules, PMO Director
Freescale Semiconductor, Inc.
“PROXI’s training helped challenge my own thinking about decision analysis, how to make it more objective, more analytically rich and less subjective. The PROXI training reminded me of some core financial and business principles I’d forgotten over the years. I left the training thinking, “we can do so much better, and we should do so much better.”
Jill Feeler, Strategy Planning Manager
Memjet Technology, Inc.
Jeff is the Managing Director of PROXI Management Decisions and a member of the Business Analytics faculty at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business. He has over 25 years of technology development and management consulting experience within the semiconductor, imaging & printing, telecom, medical devices, oil & gas, and enterprise software industries.
Jeff has lived project business-case forecasting, portfolio optimization, capital budgeting, strategic planning, and new product development at global companies such as Hewlett-Packard, Ericsson, Medtronic, Motorola, ON Semiconductor, TRW, Agilent Technologies, Freescale Semiconductor, ACCO Brands, Alcatel-Lucent, Rambus, Halliburton, and Fujitsu.
Prior to founding PROXI in 2002, Jeff was a management consultant with PRTM (acquired by PwC) in their Tokyo, Japan and Mountain View, California offices. Earlier in his career, he spent 11 years developing new products with Motorola Semiconductor in Phoenix, Arizona.
Jeff earned his MBA at the University of California Berkeley – Haas School of Business, his MS Electrical Engineering at the University of Arizona, and his BS Electrical Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Jeff is the primary inventor on four U.S. Patents and has authored 31 technical publications.
Instructor - Jeff Baum
